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09 November 2004

Comments

John N. Kelly

Individual event prediction by markets can, even if initially inaccurate, gradually contribute to organizational resilience. Organizations can nuture resilience if they repeatedly use a disciplined, sensitive form of a predictive market AND ask for, record and publish (perhaps with elective anonymity) the reasoning of participants for making their predictions.
Over time, a relatively stable group of market participants working in the same general area of business, technology or policy acquire 'market derived' expertise. The challenging discipline is to remain open to novel reframing in light of market data while continually refining conceptual models of the field under investigation.

Art

My colleague John makes an excellent point - that prediction markets ought to be but a part of a larger framework for information-sharing, strategic dialogue, and decision-making within the enterprise. -Art

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