I stumbled across this PowerPoint presentation (127kb) by one Ivan Klinec of the "Institute for Forecasting" at (of all unlikely places) the Slovak Academy of Sciences, delivered last September at "The First Prague Workshop On Futures Studies Methodology". The presentation is in English. The main website is emphatically not. (Google's attempt at translation only made things worse. Anyone speak Slovak?)
This is yet further grist for my pet theory that Europe accounts for far more than its share of scenario thinking compared with the U.S. and other places. Perhaps that's due to the origins of scenario methods (e.g., Royal Dutch Shell, Club of Rome, etc.) But those origins themselves may be rooted in a larger cultural zeitgeist that favors divergent 'shades-of-grey' thinking. That sounds too sweeping; I honestly don't know. I'd welcome theories, comments, or facts about the gap.
The presentation mostly covers ground that will be old news to those familiar with scenarios, mostly taking a traditionalist (2X2, driving forces, big stories) approach. But it makes a few good points (summarized below). Its main theory seems to be that scenario thinking is developing in parallel with the "information age" (broadly defined), while linear strategic planning methods are becoming less useful as the "industrial age" winds down. He notes that scenarios are:
- A response to the growing uncertainty of the information age
- About freedom and choices (future and present)
- Stories
- Maps of the future
- Mental maps
- Mental models
- Narratives
- Pictures
- Models
- Sets of indicators
- Tools
- Art
Below there is another link to: A preview of the new Shell Global Scenarios 2005 was presented at the January 2005 Annual Meeting and the Young Global Leaders meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
http://chircu.blogspot.com/2005/02/new-shell-global-scenarios.html
Posted by: f Ch | 18 February 2005 at 09:46 PM