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21 March 2005

Comments

ChrisHibbert

How would you structure a market on predicting floods? It would seem to be fairly easy to create a market on the general class of event over a broad area, and the market would probably reflect the general probabilities fairly well. But designing such a market to capture the kinds of specific information that you seem to say was available, though dispersed, in the specific local cases would be much harder. Unless you had specific suspicions about an impending flood in a particular area, I don't see how you'd draw that information out.

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