Because scientific understanding of solar phenomena is far from comprehensive, the wide range of predictions and methods used to inform this visually delightful graphic isn't all that surprising.
I wonder though, whether a prediction market on the same topic would come up looking prescient... or foolish? This attempt from 2007 looks like the answer to the question, "What if they declared a prediction market and nobody came?" Maybe I missed something, but I don't think so.
The almost unprecedented state of solar phenomena at the moment, the increasing dependency of the world on various kinds of satellites and the wide range of predictions would suggest it might be worth giving prediction markets another try. (I can find no other prediction markets on this, either active or defunct.)
Interestingly, this hefty pdf document, from 1996, pegged the market for space environment predictions at $100M and expected it to double in size by 1999 (see p. 29, aka 189 according to the document footers). Anyone have any idea how big it is now? Even 1% of that would be fine. :)
This scary piece on the same subject might lead some to wisely consider scenario thinking for business continuity and resilience as useful complments. Sometimes the unprecedented simply... happens, at which point the question quickly turns from prediction to how to cope and thrive in the messy, uncharted aftermath.
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